Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call real In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 sec...

DownloadRead Online
Title:Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Author:Annie Duke
Rating:
Genres:Business
ISBN:0735216355
Format Type:Hardcover
Number of Pages:288 pages pages

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Reviews

  • Terry
    Jan 01, 2019
    Thinking in Bets is a compendium of tactics and considerations from a world-class and well-decorated poker champion discussing the lessons being in an environment where beliefs have costs and probabilities associated. The author goes through a number of issues people have thinking r...
  • Leo Walsh
    Jun 28, 2018
    I've read quite dozens of pop-science books on contemporary cognitive science. And nearly all cover our "predictably irrational" cognitive biases. But few offer effective strategies for overcoming our built-in human failings. But former poker champ (and one-time Penn State PhD candidat...
  • Pete
    Jul 19, 2018
    Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018) by Annie Duke is an interesting look at how decision making in many circumstances is like poker and what many people can learn from professional poker players about making decisions when lacking informa...
  • Morgan Blackledge
    Jan 25, 2019
    One of author Annie Duke?s key insights is: ?life is more like poker than chess.? Meaning, we often make decisions and negotiate in an atmosphere of tension and deceit, without all of the information, based on probability (like poker). As opposed to making choices and dea...
  • Ryan Lackey
    Aug 23, 2018
    Great book on statistical thinking in business by a woman with a poker background and only a moderate ego, compared to a certain trader with a massive ego who has written about low probability high impact events. The first part of the book is more general statistical thinking, but pres...
  • Howard
    Mar 16, 2018
    "Our capacity for self-deception has no boundaries." There is no luck. With a combination of learning and truth-seeking, you can make better decisions in almost every area of your life. ...
  • Eduardo
    Feb 04, 2019
    I wrote a longer review here: https://www.eduardocoaches.com/2019/02/annie-dukes-thinking-in-bets-short.html Here's the TL;DR: In order to be a better decision-maker, I need to first learn to separate my decisions from my ego and all its dangers. Next, I need learn to look at decisi...
  • Ali Sattari
    Mar 27, 2019
    Concrete advice and tangible examples on how to make better decisions. This book offers a practical view for day to day life on top of findings of behavioral-economics giants like Kahneman. ...
  • Johan
    Feb 14, 2018
    First half is basically Superforecasting recap Second half is more interesting, with actionable techniques and tips to systematically improve decision-making ...
  • Eric Lin
    Feb 22, 2018
    tl;dr Acknowledge the (omni)presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, and recognize that "everything is a bet" - even decisions we're very confident in. In poker, luck is acknowledged as a major factor in every hand. If you have a 50% chance to win a $100 hand, it is a soun...
  • Cristian Strat
    Aug 12, 2018
    Decision frameworks and mental models from a professional poker player The book makes a compelling case for decisions as bets and predictions as continuous probability distributions instead of black or white, or max-likelihood discrete choices. It draws on poker stories to illustrat...
  • Romanas Wolfsborg
    Mar 22, 2018
    Life is a constant betting game. This is what Annie Duke's book suggests. I can't agree more -- from tiny everyday decisions to great life-changing steps ?- there?s always a bet, for better or worse outcome. Even when we think we?re not betting, it is a bet in itself. Pizza or sa...
  • Eric Franklin
    Jul 31, 2018
    This is a fantastic book for understanding, identifying, and correcting biases in decision making, while also repeatedly separating the quality of a decision-making process from its outcomes. ...
  • Kushal
    Mar 13, 2018
    Good Book but if you are already aware of the common human cognitive biases (Influence by Caldini / Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgement speech - are good starts) then it might be repetitive. ...
  • Prashant Ghabak
    Apr 15, 2018
    Nice read on Probablistic thinking. ...
  • Michael Huang
    Dec 14, 2018
    [blinks are good. suspect book itself has little more to offer. Scan anyway] * Judging the quality of decision by looking at the result (that is forgetting probabilistic nature of any decision) is called ?resulting? by poker players. * We have hardwired tendency to believe, n...
  • Graeme Newell
    Apr 05, 2019
    I really enjoyed this book. The author, Annie Duke, is a famous professional poker player. She has spent her life sitting around a poker table attempting to predict how chance and human behavior will coalesce to influence outcomes. This has given her a delightfully refreshing vantage p...
  • Paweł Kołkowski
    Jun 18, 2018
    Ca?y przekaz mo?na zamkn?? w sentencji "?ycie to nie szachy, to poker", ktra bardzo do mnie przemwi?a w tej ksi??ce. Wszystkie nasze decyzje to zak?ad z pewn? doz? niepewno?ci. Spodziewane wyniki tej decyzji mo?na oceni? w % prawdopodobie?stwa - takie ?wiczenie pozw...
  • Dan Connors
    Apr 07, 2019
    Annie Duke is a professional poker player and has used her expertise there to write a fascinating book about luck, skill, strategy and decisions in all areas of life. You don't particularly have to know much about poker to enjoy this book, though I'm sure it helps. The basic premise...
  • Mohammad
    Jan 18, 2019
    The curse of dimensionality ???? ????? ????? ????. ??????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ? ????? ?? ??? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????????? ??...
  • Anton
    Dec 15, 2018
    3+ ? This book is nicely written, with good examples, and curious titbits about life of pro-level poker players. It also has a great premise: all decisions are bets. But I felt there was just too much filler content to make it a satisfying experience for me. So while I enjoyed...
  • Charlie Kubal
    Nov 17, 2018
    One of my most recommended non-fiction books of the year -- frames a way of thinking that I think is severely undervalued, and combats our culture's increasing tendency to retroactively call decisions good or bad solely based on result, and assess ideas based on their source versus the...
  • Akshith Rao
    Mar 31, 2019
    Who knew that the world of poker and behavioral economics had something in common. It was refreshing to read a book that talked about dealing with our biases rather than pointing to the different ways we trip ourselves into irrationality. Although we might not be as lucky as Annie to f...
  • Manaf
    Mar 11, 2018
    Th author discusses the topic of decision making and the probabilistic mindset that should be adopted. The unnecessary repetitiveness made this book boring and longer than it should be. ...
  • Bryan
    Jan 11, 2019
    Although I went into reading this book with eyes wide open that this is NOT a "poker book", I cannot lie that my love for the game influenced my decision to pick this up. There were poker references throughout every chapter of the book, which is to be expected given Annie Duke's long t...
  • Marcin Zaremba
    Apr 18, 2019
    Nierwna ksi??ka. Z jednej strony mnstwo w?tkw rozszerzaj?cych warsztat mened?erski (resulting problem, mertonian norms, heterodoksja, backcasting, premortem itp) ale z drugiej ci??ko mi by?o si? ?zanurzy?? si? w tej tre?ci. Sam nie wiem dlaczego. Mo?e po cz?...
  • Zhou Fang
    May 30, 2018
    I had relatively high expectations for this book as I found it on multiple reading lists. However, I was ultimately disappointed as this book ended up being a literature review of the same studies that have generated many self-help and popular psychology books over the past decade. Ann...
  • Holdon Son
    Mar 31, 2019
    Light 4. Follows a very by-the-book path in the vein of Gladwell/Levitt (pop culture analogy, thesis statement, bits about statistics, back to analogy), but I feel like there's parts of this I can definitely apply to real life. ...
  • ScienceOfSuccess
    Oct 18, 2018
    This supposed to be a nice book about poker, with some science behind. But Author just pointed out that poker is mixed luck and skill, and you should focus on skill part. That's all, honestly. There was a lot of smart things from over 100 self-help books, but reading them all put...
  • Klaus Leopold
    Aug 07, 2018
    The content has little to do with the title. If the book was called" Introduction to probabilistic thinking", it would be more appropriate and I would not have bought it. It really got off to a good start. A bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. The world is ...